A group of astute analysts say that stocks and commodities could melt up in 2017. And if that was to occur it could lead to a meltdown in 2018. The current melt up started in about 2015 back at the start of February, and they do expect there to be a bit of a correct before we see another leg up higher.
They do explain that the stock market right now is in what could be called a eighth innings of a nine innings move. This can be lethal, and leave investors behind, but it can also create panic and a bit rounding top pattern latter on.
There really is no reason to panic just yet, but this bull market seems to just keep chugging along without a care in the world. The reason melt up continues is that you get lots of novice investors who decide they are going to miss out and hop in, like lemmings one after the other.
There could be some choppy periods in the meantime. BofA’s year-end target for the S&P 500 is 2,300. It was just 30 points below that Monday.
It could be very rough and treacherous waters when Donald Trump gets into the White House. No one knows what he is going to do. You have a businessman, who has never been in politics or the White House running a country. That thought has investors very panicked and slightly on edge.
The positive sign to that coin is that he is going to fix real estate, after the sub prime mess, and he is going to boost fiscal spending and pump money into infrastructure and jobs. All the while he is going to keep the cheap jobs out of America. Will that work? We do not know, but we will soon find out. That is probably going to be a positive for companies on the U.S. shore. And if that is going to be positive for them, and earnings go up, that means the stock market is likely to go up alongside it.
A lot of the bigger hedges funds that did well in 2016 are positioned for the market to go up to new highs. Yet, the main concern with their constituents is that the stock market at the end of 2016, when Trump won the elections, went up too high and too fast.
As soon as Trump gets in, we will find out if he wants to play with the big boys, or just cry and tweet all day long. At the end of the day, investors like the notion of a TRUMP led country, especially those in the financial and loans industries. If that can get the boost they need, that will only start to spill over into other areas, and be quite modest for investors and the stock market.